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Two things that caught my attention this week 6/17/19

 

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Two things that caught my attention this week, 6/17/19:

   

1. Effective lower bound v. Zero lower bound - Danielle DiMartino Booth - Think potentially important language change, especially in light of other Fed pronouncements in recent weeks that we have been writing about in our work suggesting Fed’s hand being forced by US money markets.

2. Relatively tame oil price response to Straits of Hormuz incident - function of weak economy?

In this episode, I mention FFTT Tree Rings, for more information, please visit here: https://gromen.lpages.co/tree-rings/

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Two things that caught my attention this week 6/2/19

 

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Two things that caught my attention this week, 6/2/19:

   

1. We’re not sure if US or China has more leverage, but China likely has better hand than conventional wisdom believes; watch oil.

2. Wall Street now seeing multiple rate cuts in 2019; sharp reversal in expectations from earlier this year, being driven by stress in US money market plumbing more than US economy (at this point.)

In this episode, I mention FFTT Tree Rings, for more information, please visit here: https://gromen.lpages.co/tree-rings/

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Two things that caught my attention this week 5/19/19

 

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Two things that caught my attention this week, 5/19/19:

   

* Fed officials begin crafting a narrative that will allow them to expand their balance sheet with stocks at all-time highs & unemployment at 60-year low

* Tone of “serious people” regarding China, trade war is changing.  Blankfein tweeting about merits of tariffs, Friedman agreeing w/Bannon on CNBC.

In this episode, I mention FFTT Tree Rings, for more information, please visit here: https://gromen.lpages.co/tree-rings/

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Two things that caught my attention this week 5/5/19

 

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Two things that caught my attention this week, 5/5/19:

  

  • Trump says tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods will increase to 25%, blames slow progress in trade talks – de-globalization terrible for pretty much anything but USD, USTs, & maybe gold…

 

  • Bloomberg & FT both featuring articles this week on Central Bank gold buying up 68% y/y in 1Q19.  Big non-sequitur to prevailing USD shortage to see foreign CB’s selling USDs to buy gold. 

In this episode, I mention FFTT Tree Rings, for more information, please visit here: https://gromen.lpages.co/tree-rings/

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Luke Gromen, CFA
Forest for the Trees

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