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Two things that caught my attention this week 9/16/18

Two things that caught my attention this week 9-16-18 from Luke Gromen on Vimeo.

* With the 10-year anniversary of Lehman, we are struck that once again money is being lent to entities that can’t repay it, but this time, it’s to western sovereign govt’s (who have a printing press, unlike US homeowners in 2008)

* China says they’re considering cutting off certain exports to the US in the latest signal that China is unlikely to “cave in” to the US

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Two things that caught my attention this week 9/10/18

Two things that caught my attention this week 9/10/18 from Luke Gromen on Vimeo.

My thoughts on what is going on in the world this week:

  • 10y UST yields not dropping despite what BBG calls the “longest EM rout since financial crisis” is an indicator of rising systemic stress.
  • The amount of noise and conflicting noise in the media in the last week about the geopolitics of the USD is a signpost that we are progressing into the mid-to-late innings of trade tensions – system stress is rising here as well. 

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Two things that caught my attention this week 9/4/18

September 4, 2018

My thoughts on what is going on in the world this week:

  • Yuan oil contract – better than expected progress, our thoughts
  • US ISM number – best in 14 years, but can it remain detached from EM distress? 

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Luke Gromen, CFA
Forest for the Trees

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