FFTT, LLC

the  forest  for  the  trees

Two things that caught my attention this week, 12/2/18

1. Initial G20 thoughts:  Tough to read too much into US/China G20 mtg yet, but we do know this: US is saying "You need to reduce trade surplus by buying more real stuff fr US", not "You need to buy more USTs".  The implied change in flows is potentially critical – needs a weaker USD over time, but flows should drive stronger USD near term cet par).

2. Ned Davis Research Global Recession Indicator is now very much in the danger zone, at level last seen in late 2015, late 2011 (EU crisis), late 2008…& it is still rising.  Continue to think we are much closer to Fed truly blinking, even as long USD positioning is at 2+ year extremes.

Stay connected by joining our weekly newsletter (and download one of our most popular reports) over on the right hand side of this page.

Comments powered by CComment

Contact Information

Luke Gromen, CFA
Forest for the Trees

For more information on subscribing to our research or other questions, please contact our team at info@fftt-llc.com or call 440.732.0764.