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Two things that caught my attention this week 12/9/18

Two things that caught my attention this week, 12/9/18: 

  1. Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) v. SPX bottomed in early October; this is a non-sequitur relative to consensus narrative, position – we’re watching with interest.
  2. Rising US deficits into an ongoing foreign UST buying strike now crowding out US economy after having crowded out EM’s earlier this year; Check to you, Fed.

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Two things that caught my attention this week 12/2/18

Two things that caught my attention this week, 12/2/18

1. Initial G20 thoughts:  Tough to read too much into US/China G20 mtg yet, but we do know this: US is saying "You need to reduce trade surplus by buying more real stuff fr US", not "You need to buy more USTs".  The implied change in flows is potentially critical – needs a weaker USD over time, but flows should drive stronger USD near term cet par).

2. Ned Davis Research Global Recession Indicator is now very much in the danger zone, at level last seen in late 2015, late 2011 (EU crisis), late 2008…& it is still rising.  Continue to think we are much closer to Fed truly blinking, even as long USD positioning is at 2+ year extremes.

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Two things that caught my attention this week 11/25/18

Two things that caught my attention this week, 11/25/18:

  1. More high-profile market participants are beginning to notice that USTs are not acting like they “should” in equity market weakness; why they likely will continue acting poorly.
  2. Atlanta Fed reduced 4q GDP outlook to 2.5%; given higher rates & 105% of GDP US Federal debt, US economic weakness would present historically-unique problems

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Two things that caught my attention this week 11/18/18

Two things that caught my attention this week, 11/18/18:

  • Fed finally openly talking about US economic slowing may be an important turning point.
  • The narrative in the media is shifting regarding geopolitical dynamics – Saudi vilified, more countries interested in Russian S-400s, US execs becoming China skeptics.

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Contact Information

Luke Gromen, CFA
Forest for the Trees

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